Friday, April 23, 2010

What! Footballlllll!

It was in my wildest dream that oneday I would be doing something related to football for a living, of course watching is excluded! In the 90's, who would want to work in this getting worse by the day industry?

When I was abroad I saw how a simple suggestion improved the team that used to be thrashed by our national team, transformed into a top notch Asian team. I still remember the Dutch coach statement on TV, Hans Ooft said, the problem with the Japanese was their culture, they dont see eye to eye with each other even when they are sending the ball. Sound silly right. But that was what happening to Japan's soccer team then. In 92 they launch J-League with professional managers inclusive of Zico, and who else but Arsene Wenger! And Japan never look back from there on!

The same with our football, we are moving in a roundabout, "Life is like wheel"? Yeah last time when nobody knows what is going on, that statement sounds reasonably prophetic. That happens when you leave your destiny to chances. That's why I really wanted to explore this match analysis frontier.

Everybody knows that we are much lousier than MU right? But do we really know in what aspect that we are so? If the aspects were clear, do we know how many or much lousier we were? NOBODY knows...But we have done a lot of thing, waste a lot of time and burn a lot of money right?

;-) Now I can talk numbers when it comes to football, no more "kedai kopi" talk. Yeah the first in Malaysia!!!!!

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Up, up and away!!!

Ringgit was at RM3.17 for a greenback yesterday. Yea we are on our way back to 1997. Remember, we used to be at RM2.50 per greenback! What created this "scramble" for ringgit? Was it a quarter of a point raised? Or was it a better gdp forecast by a foreign house? Obviously it doesnt take a huge sum of money to raise the ringgit.
A credible better forecast will do wonders and in a very short period of time. To have a better forecast, means the gov has to come up with a lesser forecast first, because the keyword here is "a better forecast by a credible foreign house". Hypothetically speaking, will the RM climb this fast only if foreigners come up with a good forecast but without the lesser, average forecast by the gov? I dont think so. The better than expected forecast created the bottleneck for the scramble.

Now you see we dont need a huge interest raise to have a strong currenccy, again hypothetically you can look at Japan's rate to rule out otherwise. Fundamentally speaking, all we need are strong demands, from the monetarists and a new one from our globally operating local companies.

Strong demand from monetarists is not new, so better skip to our GOLC, i.e. Petronas. I believe half of the revenue at Petronas is coming from overseas operations, so perhaps at least half of the (pre tax?) profit also will be coming from outside, and that would be a good demand for our currency. It would be in tens of billions of RM$!!! Unless they dont convert them, so it wouldnt mean anything as US$ can be used widely here, but imagine if they convert them into ringgit...Of course there are other companies that can follow suit. What if EPF, PNB, Khazanah, CIMB repatriate their profits back? That would be another tens of billions of RM (just dont forget to increase your overseas exposure first!)

Just to say, that you dont have to raise the rate so much to have a strong currency.A good forecast will do the job, but a better forecast from the foreigners will boost it further!

Hope they know when to pull the brake...