Sunday, August 17, 2008

Nearest to the Gold...

Out of all potentials, now its Chong Wei that emerged to be our closest opportunity to the Olympic Gold. Congrats! He was calm in the interviews.
And the most important thing is that he was very focus on his mission. He took it one at a time and very clear of his strategies to slay the opponent.

I believe he can beat Lin Dan this time, not due to the reward or anything else, but the fact that he is very clear of the strategies that need to be deployed in order to out perform the opponent.

All the best!

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Take over season?

With the oil bull running out of steam, charts are showing strong negative correlation between oil and DJ. Financially the speculators are not just shorting oil, but also switching to equity for a better risk spread. Economically, cheap energy will help economies create value thus create enough profit to oil growth.

But to Malaysia's economy, you cant undo the damage created by the oil price hike, regardless of the Sept08 retail gasolene price down (expected) taking cue from the global crude price, consumer products prices' arent likely to follow suit. Thats the inefficiency of our economy. Free competition is still not in the dictionary. They have been "pantau"ing the situation, I think since the '80s, and yet that's all they have to say. What comes after pantau? May be "pantau part 2". They have never heard of efficient economic system that adjust itself to the benefit of the consumer.

At US$100/barrel, down by US$40, sounds cheap. But if the average is at that level for the rest of the year, then Petronas definitely will record another bumper year! Even if the yearly average stands at US$80, they will definitely spend another year in Fortune 500. At the same time, palm oil also will be at a good price, and this will still help growth.

What about a higher level of Ringgit? Seriously. Think about this scenario. When other economies are facing a slow down, due to higher energy cost, 2 of our major growth engines will be enjoying a good harvest. Oil & gas and palm oil will be having a good time. With a stronger Ringgit and other economies slowing down, perhaps many investors in the neighbourhood are more than willing to liquidate their holding and its a good time to take over. All BNM need to do is just make a very good economic forecast. Then perhaps companies like VC can start the spark and ...ride the wave babe.